Pseudorandom distribution
Pseudorandom distribution (often shortened to PRD) in DotA refers to a statistical mechanic of how certain probabilitybased items and abilities work. In true random distribution, every "roll" operates independently, but in PRD, the effect's chance increases every time it does not happen. This results in the effects occurring more consistently. In general, PRD is applied to the following types of abilities: Critical Strike, Bash, Damage Block, Chain Lightning, Maim and Evasion.
Contents
Summary[edit  edit source]
The probability of an effect to occur (or proc) on the Nth test since the last successful proc is given by P(N) = C × N. For each instance which could trigger the effect but does not, the PRD augments the probability of the effect happening for the next instance by a constant C. This constant, which is also the initial probability, is lower than the listed probability of the effect it is shadowing. Once the effect occurs, the counter is reset.
 Example:
 Slardar's Bash has a 25% chance to stun the target. On the first attack, however, it only has an ~8.5% probability to bash. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases the probability by ~8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is ~17%, on the third it is ~25.5%, etc. After a bash occurs, the probability resets to ~8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash procs nearly 25% of the time.
Effects based on PRD rarely proc many times in a row, or go a long time without happening. This makes the game less luck based and adds a great deal of consistency to many probabilitybased abilities in Dota 2. Gameplay wise, PRD is difficult to exploit. It is theoretically possible to increase your chance to bash or critical strike on the next attack by attacking creeps several times without the effect happening, but in practice this is nearly impossible to do. Note that for instances that would not trigger the effect, the probability counter does not increase. So a hero with critical strike attacking buildings does not increase its chance to critical strike on its next attack, since critical strike does not work against buildings.
Aside from damage block items, the probabilities listed in the game are theoretical percentages, which are slightly higher than the actual probabilities. In the following table, P(T) is the theoretical probability while P(A) is the actual average. C is the PRD constant. Max N is the minimum number of attacks that would result in C × N becoming greater than 1 (i.e. guaranteed proc). Average N is the expected value of N: the sum of the products of N and probabilities. SD is the standard deviation of N, a measure of how spread the data is, using the population formula. The lower the deviation, the more consistent the procs are. For comparison, SDt is the standard deviation of N in true random distribution, using the sample formula from N = 1 to N = 264. Apparently these are higher than those of PRD, hence not as consistent.
Standard percentages[edit  edit source]
P(T)  P(A)  C  Max N  Most Probable N  Average N  SD  SDt 

5%  5.0%  0.00380  264  16  20.00  10.30  19.53 
10%  10.0%  0.01475  68  8  10.00  5.06  9.50 
15%  15.0%  0.03221  32  6  6.67  3.31  6.16 
20%  20.0%  0.05570  18  4  5.00  2.43  4.48 
25%  24.9%  0.08475  12  3  4.02  1.90  3.49 
30%  29.9%  0.11895  9  3  3.34  1.54  2.81 
35%  33.6%  0.14628  7  3  2.98  1.35  2.43 
40%  37.7%  0.18128  6  2  2.65  1.17  2.10 
45%  41.8%  0.21867  5  2  2.39  1.03  1.83 
50%  45.7%  0.25701  4  2  2.19  0.91  1.62 
55%  49.3%  0.29509  4  2  2.03  0.83  1.45 
60%  53.0%  0.33324  4  2  1.89  0.74  1.30 
65%  56.6%  0.38109  3  2  1.77  0.69  1.17 
70%  60.1%  0.42448  3  2  1.66  0.63  1.05 
75%  63.2%  0.46134  3  2  1.58  0.57  0.96 
80%  66.7%  0.50276  2  1  1.50  0.50  0.87 
Unusual percentages[edit  edit source]
P(T)  P(A)  C  Max N  Most Probable N  Average N  SD  SDt 

16%  16.0%  0.03645  28  5  6.25  3.09  5.74 
N/A  50.0%  0.30210  4  2  2.00  0.81  1.42 
N/A  75.0%  0.66667  2  1  1.33  0.47  0.67 
Balance changelog[edit  edit source]
 Essence Aura now uses pseudorandom distribution.
 Evasion now uses pseudorandom distribution.
 Entangling Claws now uses pseudorandom distribution.
List of abilities using PRD[edit  edit source]
 Helix Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Critical Chance: 10%/15%/20%/25%
Evasion: 10%/15%/20%/25%
Actual Chance: 10%/15%/20%/24.9%  Critical Chance: 10%
Actual Chance: 10%  Bash Chance: 10%/15%/20%/25%
Actual Chance: 10%/15%/20%/24.9%  Critical Chance: 20%/25%/30%/35%
Actual Chance: 20%/24.9%/29.9%/33.6%  Lifesteal Chance: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Critical Chance: 40%
Actual Chance: 37.7%  Cripple Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Proc Chance: 40%
Actual Chance: 37.7%  Evasion: 20%/30%/40%/50%
Actual Chance: 20%/29.9%/37.7%/45.7%  Critical Chance: 15%
Actual Chance: 15%  Bash Chance: 15%
Actual Chance: 15%  Bash Chance: 10%/15%/20%/25%
Actual Chance: 10%/15%/20%/24.9%  Slow Chance: 40%
Actual Chance: 37.7%  Proc Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Proc Chance: 17%
Actual Chance: 17%  Bash Chance: 10%
Actual Chance: 10%  Critical Chance: 15%
Actual Chance: 15%
List of items using PRD[edit  edit source]
 Bash Chance (Melee/Ranged): 25%/10%
Actual Chance (Melee/Ranged): 24.9%/10%  Critical Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Evasion: 35%
Actual Chance: 33.6%  Critical Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Critical Chance: 30%
Actual Chance: 29.9%  Maim Chance: 20%
Actual Chance (Maim): 20%
Evasion: 25%
Actual Chance (Evasion): 24.9%  Pierce Chance: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Lightning Chance: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Lightning Chance: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Lightning Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  MiniBash Chance: 35%
Actual Chance: 33.6%  Block Chance: 60%
Actual Chance: 53%  Maim Chance: 20%
Actual Chance: 20%  Maim Chance: 30%
Actual Chance: 29.9%  Bash Chance (Melee/Ranged): 25%/10%
Actual Chance (Melee/Ranged): 24.9%/10%  Evasion: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Evasion: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%  Block Chance (Actual): 50%
 Evasion: 25%
Actual Chance: 24.9%
See also[edit  edit source]
